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10-Aug-2017 11:41

Suppose he’d fit a hierarchical model or done a preregistered replication or used some other procedure to avoid jumping at patterns in noise. And then he most likely would’ve found nothing distinguishable from a null effect, no publication in JPSP (no, I don’t think they’d publish the results of a large multi-year study finding no effect for a phenomenon that most psychologists don’t believe in the first place), no article on Bem in the NYT . (I assume it depends on context, that power pose will do more good than harm in some settings, and more harm than good in others).

The challenge for Cuddy—and in all seriousness I hope she follows up on this—is to be this inspirational figure, to communicate to those millions, in a way that respects the science.

Selection bias in what gets reported When people make statistical errors, I don’t say “gotcha,” I feel sad.

Even when I joke about it, I’m not happy to see the mistakes; indeed, I often blame the statistics profession—including me, as a textbook writer!

I just think it’s too bad that the Carney/Cuddy/Yap paper got all that publicity and that Cuddy got herself tangled up in defending it.

—for portraying statistical methods as tools for routine discovery: Do the randomization, gather the data, pass statistical significance and collect 0. Think of the thousands of careful scientists who, for whatever combination of curiosity or personal interests or heterodoxy, decide to study offbeat topics such as ESP or the effect of posture on life success—but who conduct their studies carefully, gathering high-quality data, and using designs and analyses that minimize the chances of being fooled by noise.

Regarding what gets mentioned in the newspapers and in the blogs, there’s some selection bias. Suppose, for example, that Daryl Bem had not made the serious, fatal mistakes he’d made in his ESP research.. These researchers will, by and large, quietly find null results, which for very reasonable dog-bite-man reasons will typically be unpublishable, or only publishable in minor journals and will not be likely to inspire lots of news coverage. Conversely, I’ll accept the statement that Cuddy in her Ted talks could be inspiring millions of people in a good way, even if power pose does nothing, or even does more harm than good.

But, paradoxically, I’m now thinking we should be saying the opposite.

The Ted talk has a lot going for it: it’s much stronger than the journal articles that justify it and purportedly back it up.

I just think it’s too bad that the Carney/Cuddy/Yap paper got all that publicity and that Cuddy got herself tangled up in defending it.—for portraying statistical methods as tools for routine discovery: Do the randomization, gather the data, pass statistical significance and collect 0. Think of the thousands of careful scientists who, for whatever combination of curiosity or personal interests or heterodoxy, decide to study offbeat topics such as ESP or the effect of posture on life success—but who conduct their studies carefully, gathering high-quality data, and using designs and analyses that minimize the chances of being fooled by noise.Regarding what gets mentioned in the newspapers and in the blogs, there’s some selection bias. Suppose, for example, that Daryl Bem had not made the serious, fatal mistakes he’d made in his ESP research.. These researchers will, by and large, quietly find null results, which for very reasonable dog-bite-man reasons will typically be unpublishable, or only publishable in minor journals and will not be likely to inspire lots of news coverage. Conversely, I’ll accept the statement that Cuddy in her Ted talks could be inspiring millions of people in a good way, even if power pose does nothing, or even does more harm than good.But, paradoxically, I’m now thinking we should be saying the opposite.The Ted talk has a lot going for it: it’s much stronger than the journal articles that justify it and purportedly back it up.It’s admirable that Carney just walked away from it all.